Italy: A shift towards European/economic issues seems unlikely - ING
Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist at ING, suggests that with one week to the Italian polls, they don't believe there will be a sharp shift in focus in the campaign themes.
Key Quotes
“If in principle discussions on the perspective of the European governance might be resurrected, external conditions are not adding extra pressure.”
“In particular, the delay in the formation of the German government in principle gives the competing Italian parties some extra time to keep their cards close to the chest on the issue. The notable absence from the campaign calendar of any televised debate putting the leaders of the main competing parties face to face also suggests that there is limited appetite to shift gear. If this will be true, we will have witnessed a campaign where the contenders have mainly aimed at strengthening the link with the vocational (sometimes disillusioned) electorate rather than trying to expand the electoral base.”
“Pretending not to extend alliances after the vote does not mean doing it
- In the current political setting, most political actors are officially pretending they will be unwilling to coalesce with competitors after the vote in case of a non-decisive result in the polls.
- However, as normal in a quasi-proportional system, they might eventually have to. Notwithstanding post-vote alliances have not been part of the campaign debate, their sheer possibility has been fuelling reciprocal mistrust within coalitions. This seems particularly true within the centre-right between Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Salvini’s Lega Nord, who have conflicting views on many key issues while officially sharing a common programme. In case of an inconclusive result, we suspect that the cohesion of the centre-right alliance might evaporate.
- The centre-left coalition, being dominated by the PD party, and looking less dis-homogeneous, seems less exposed to this risk. Ironically, the only party relatively openly hinting at the possibility of a post-vote alliance was the M5S, a long-time opponent of any idea of any compromise. Reportedly, during a closed-door meeting with investors in London, M5S leader Luigi Di Maio opened to the possibility of post-vote coalitions, or, as he clarified subsequently, to the possibility to accept the (post-vote) convergence of other parties on the M5S programme points. An interesting opening, indeed.”