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Saham Mungkin Turun 25% Jika Yield-T 10-thn Naik Ke 4,5%

Laporan Bloomberg tertanggal 25 Februari berbicara tentang pandangan Investment Bank Goldman Sachs mengenai dampak kenaikan yield Treasury pada ekonomi dan bursa saham AS.

Poin Utama

Kenaikan rates ke 4,5 persen pada akhir tahun akan menyebabkan penurunan harga ekuitas sebesar 20% sampai 25%.

Skenario dasar Goldman menyerukan yield 10-tahun 3,25 persen pada akhir 2018, meskipun "sress test" ke 4,5 persen mengindikasikan bahwa pergerakan tersebut akan menyebabkan saham jatuh.

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Indeks dolar (DXY), yang mengukur nilai greenback terhadap sekeranjang mata uang, gagal untuk menyingkirkan MA 200 (moving average) pada grafik 4 jam
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Pekan lalu Fed dan ECB menunjukkan perbedaan kebijakan moneter melebar karena Dolar AS. Namun, penurunan EUR/USD dibatasi di sekitar 1,2260. Namun, k
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