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19 Feb 2018

EUR/AUD seeking Friday's low on thin markets

  • EUR/AUD set to continue moving sideways.
  • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday.

EUR/AUD is indecisive to start off the week, testing the week's open price and Friday's low of 1.5676. With China's institutions shuttered for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year, Asia markets promise thin volumes and muted price moves going forward into the next few days.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will be posting their Non-Monetary Policy Minutes on Wednesday at 08:00 GMT, where the topic of discussion will largely be Brexit and talking points with the EU's lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. Europe also has their Eurogroup and EcoFin meetings on Monday and Tuesday respectively, where the topics of discussion will largely be activities and future plans for within the Eurozone looking into the future.

EUR/AUD has largely consolidated for 12 straight trading days as the Euro and the Aussie struggle to compete with each other, as both currencies have shown to be susceptible to selling off in the recent risk events that saw dramatic swings in market confidence in equities and the US Dollar. Between the two, the Aussie is likely to wind up the bigger loser, as middling economic growth is keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) firmly in wait-and-see mode in regards to interest rates, with many analysts anticipating no movement from the RBA in 2018, while other central banks around the globe are gearing up to begin raising rates soon.

EUR/AUD Technicals

The pair is still consolidating near the top, testing into two-year highs last week but failing to make any further gains. Charts are still strongly bullish, with price trading high above both the 34 EMA and 200-day SMA, while H4 charts show the pair firmly in a consolidation trap between 1.5650 and 1.5775. Intraday moves will be met with support at 1.5657 and 1.5615, and resistance waiting above at 1.5725, 1.5766, and 1.5800.

 

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