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16 Jan 2018

EUR/JPY peeps above 136.00, yield differential supports gains

  • EUR/JPY rises to a one-week high of 136.04.
  • 10Y German-JP spread rises in EUR-positive manner.

The EUR/JPY rose to a one-week high of 136.04 in Asia, as the 10-year German (DE) and Japan yield spread hit 6-month high of 51.4 basis points (bps) yesterday.

Yield spread chart

  • The spread bottomed out at 23.7 bps on Dec. 11 and has risen sharply in the EUR-positive manner in the subsequent days.
  • EUR/JPY topped out at 136.64 on Jan. 5 and fell to 133.02 on Jan. 11 even though the spread increased from 38 bps to 45 bps during the same time frame.  
  • The spread widened further to 51.4 bps, and that seems to have helped EUR/JPY recovery to 134.00 levels.

The EUR/JPY cross could move 36.64 (Jan. 5 high) if the yield differential continues to widen in favor of the common currency.

EUR/JPY Technical Levels

A move above 136.23 (Feb. 2014 high) would open doors for 139.00 (Aug. 2015 high). On the downside, breach of support at 134.28 (61.8% Fib R of 2015 high - 2016 low) could yield 130.84 (monthly 50-MA).

 

 

 

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