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16 Jan 2018

AUD/USD rally contradicts breakdown in 2Y AU-US yield spread

  • The 2-year yield spread no longer guides the exchange rate?

AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.7501 on Dec. 8 and rose to a high of 0.7979 yesterday. The 6.37 percent rally from the December low contradicts the drop in the 2-year Aussie-US yield spread.

Yield spread chart

  • The 2-year spread fell into the negative in November and remained depressed near zero levels throughout December.
  • As of writing, the Aussie 2-year bond yields only 6 basis points (bps) more than its US counterpart.
  • The declining spread indicates the Aussie dollar is no longer a high yield currency.

Still, the AUD/USD pair has rallied more than 6 percent from the December low of 0.7501. Clearly, the correlation has broken down.

Jan 16, 2018

China Press: Ratio of Treasuries in China fx reserves unlikely to fall

The 21st Century Business Herald, China’s news daily, came out with an opinion piece by Zhang Ming, a researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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Jan 16, 2018

NZD/USD on a corrective slide near 0.7300 ahead of NZ GDT

The NZD/USD pair kicked-off Tuesday on a bearish note, correcting a part of yesterday’s rally to fresh 4-month tops of 0.7315, as the bulls take a bre
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