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11 Jan 2018

EUR/JPY - Positive above uptrend - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank says the short-term outlook remains positive as long as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 5-month long ascending trendline. 

Key quotes

EUR/JPY is correcting lower and has already reached the 2017-18 support line at 133.07, which may hold the downside (although we are less convinced that it will!). Currently, intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that rallies will fail circa 134.30.

Beyond a retracement, the recent rise above major resistance offered by 134.50/58 (high from November 2015 and also a double Fibonacci retracement) introduces scope for a test of the 2008-2018 downtrend at 140.20. Where are we wrong near term? Below the 133.07 uptrend should be enough to re-target the 131.16 November low. Only a close below here would negate the up move and suggest losses to 128.50 and the 127.57 August low.

Short-Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Positive above uptrend.

Long-term trend (1-3 months): Is heading towards the 2008-2017 resistance line at 140.11.

 

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