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10 Nov 2017

NZD/USD seen at 0.70 in Q1 2018 – UOB

Researchers at UOB Group have assessed the prospects for the Kiwi Dollar for the next months.

Key Quotes

“In the past two months, concerns over new government policies that restrict immigration, foreign investments and a change to the Reserve Bank (RBNZ)’s mandate have sank the NZD/USD”.

“A narrowing yield differential between NZ and US government bonds and falling milk prices further weighed on the domestic currency. There is a risk that short positioning in the NZD/USD may be rebuilt”.

“A moderated RBNZ this morning probably means that the FX adjustments are mostly done”.

“Recent developments in New Zealand necessitate a review of our NZD/USD forecasts. Previously, in our Quarterly Global Outlook for 4Q2017, published on 22 Sep 2017, we had a positive NZD/USD view, forecasting 0.74 by 4Q17, 0.75 by 1Q18, 0.77 by 2Q18 and 3Q18. The view hinges on a smooth transition post elections, stable dairy prices and RBNZ possibly turning hawkish. Clearly, as presented above, each of the factors has gone the other way”.

“At the same time, we think the FX adjustments are mostly done. From RBNZ’s statement this morning, there is clear push back against markets’ dovish interpretations of the proposed dual-mandate for the RBNZ that was the key factor weighing on the NZD leading into this meeting”.

“In conclusion, we take this opportunity to lower the trajectory for NZD/USD. Our new forecasts are now 0.68, 0.70, 0.71 and 0.72 respectively for the four quarters starting 4Q17”.

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