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19 Sep 2017

AUD/USD stuck at trend line hurdle after RBA cautions on household debt & low CPI

AUD/USD failed to take out resistance at 0.7993 [trend line sloping upwards from the June 2 low and July 7 low] after the RBA minutes stressed the need to balance the risk of high household debt and low CPI.

At press time, the spot was trading at 0.7975 levels. Despite the failure at the trend line hurdle, the currency pair is still up 0.20% on the day.

RBA does the balancing act

The minutes said the solid employment growth is expected to continue, and talked about the need to balance risk of high household debt and low CPI. It added further that growth and wages low but stable. The policy makers reiterated the disinflationary impact of the strong Aussie dollar.

Clearly, the central bank has done the balancing act, although markets are not particularly impressed, which is evident from the failure to retake the rising trend line hurdle. The gains in the AUD/USD pair are also being capped by expectations that the Fed would hike rates in December.

Also released this Tuesday morning was the Aussie house price index, which cooled to 1.9% y/y from the previous figure of 2.2%. The decline in house prices is AUD bearish.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes-

The 4 hours chart shows that the pair may continue sliding over the upcoming sessions, as the decline gained momentum once the price broke below its 20 SMA, bearish around 0.7995, whilst in the same chart, the RSI indicator maintains a strong downward momentum around 35, while the Momentum holds  within negative territory, with limited directional strength. There's a strong static support around 0.7920, with further declines below the level favoring a downward continuation for this Tuesday.  

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