Usually ECB President Mario Draghi dismisses talking about the euro exchange rate. However for tomorrow's press conference, Commerzbank can't exclude possible statements on the development of the euro exchange rate and the effects on growth and inflation as in the meeting last January. “In particular, they might reflect a view which was initially making the rounds as unconfirmed comments from ECB circles yesterday and which was then also taken up by the MPC member Erkki Liikanen: the stronger euro reflects the rising confidence in the euro zone and an improved fundamental position”, wrote analyst Carolin Hecht, pointing out that the exchange rate is influential for the euro zone economy but not the target of the ECB’s monetary policy, but unclear if the markets will make this small but important distinction tomorrow.

“The possibility that Mario Draghi might sound a little more cautious in view of the recent spread widening between peripheral yields and bunds alone might be considered as to constitute a verbal intervention by some”, Hecht continued. For now, 1.3450 remains support and 1.3685 resistance in the EUR-USD.