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15 Jun 2017

Trade plans selling EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac explained that they favour 2 trades this week, selling EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP.

Key Quotes:

"1) Sell EUR/CAD: Entry: 100% at 1.4980, Stop: 1.5110*, Target: 1.4660.

Rationale: 
 
Sell into rebounds (move gained an early kick on Wilkins comments)

EUR has gained persistently positive information and data over recent months, culminating in an extraordinary performance for Macron’s REM in the first round of French Assembly elections and a slide in support for Euro-sceptic 5-Star movement in the first round of Italian regional elections
Although regional surveys remain at multi-year highs, the most recent data have started to moderate, especially outside of Germany, including ZEW expectations
New EU data is relatively light this week, with ZEW surveys the only new information beyond final May CPI and industrial production and amalgamated trade data
A protracted Brexit negotiation is not positive for either EU-27 or UK and the outperformance of regional stock markets suggests a fully priced market
IMM Non-commercial EUR longs (74k) are now at or nearing the peaks seen in both 2011 and 2013 (the net-leveraged sub-group is now square EUR)
Against that, BoC Deputy Gov Wilkins has cemented the Bank's hawkish pivot, noting, "As growth continues and, ideally, broadens further, Governing Council will be assessing whether all of the considerable monetary policy stimulus presently in place is still required.” The BoC statement 3wks ago was notably more upbeat, but these comments are altogether clearly more hawkish, Wilkins’ comments amounting to the informal adoption of a tightening bias.
The market is badly positioned in CAD 94.5k net short still close to all-time highs. 

2) Sell EUR/GBP: Entry: 100% at 0.8810, Stop: 0.8870*, Target: 0.8665.

Rationale: 

EUR reasonale as above
GBP has been sold on the back of the increased political uncertainty generated by the weakened Conservative govt. after last week's election as well as post-election surveys of uncertainty 
The Bank of England is likely to continue its highly accommodative policies when it meets this week, but the context of a resilient economy will continue and a likely point of discussion within the MPC and the threshold for withdrawing accommodation is relatively low according to recent minutes
Both housing and inflation data this week surprised on the upside and will pressure the covering of GBP shorts if BoE maintain a more balanced stance
Govt./DUP agreement is likely soon together with the likelihood of more business friendly Brexit negotiations and a dropping of contentious manifesto initiatives."

Jun 15, 2017

UK developments: BoE on hold for time being - Scotiabank

Analysts at Scotiabank explained the developments from the UK today. Key Quotes: "Retail sales fell 1.2% in May, much weaker than expected, pressuri
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Jun 15, 2017

EUR/JPY: hard rally but short of key level at 20 dma

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 123.66, up 0.60% on the day, having posted a daily high at 123.75 and low at 122.40. EUR/JPY has rallied and extende
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