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Moody's: Almost all emerging market economies are set for positive economic growth in 2017 and 2018

Moody's Investors Service compiled a report after it surveyed delegates at the rating agency's inaugural Emerging Markets Summit in London on May 16.

Key highlights:

  • Almost all emerging market economies are set for positive economic growth in 2017 and 2018
  • Steadying growth, coupled with an adjustment in external deficits in many economies and a further gradual rise in commodity prices, should support emerging market capital inflows and credit conditions in the next year
  • Moody's forecasts real GDP growth of 5.0% and 5.1% for G-20 emerging markets in 2017 and 2018
  • The largest risks to EM credit in the coming year are a sharper slowdown in China and renewed commodity price pressure (39%), followed by elevated EM corporate sector and household sector leverage (27%)
  • South Africa (42%) and Turkey (40%) topped the list of EM economies which will experience the greatest deterioration in credit conditions over the coming 12 months, according to the poll results

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