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31 May 2017

GBP/USD stays quiet below 1.29 as Beige Book doesn't offer anything new

The GBP/USD rose above 1.29 in the NA session on Wednesday, recovering a majority of Friday's heavy losses but failed to stretch further amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts. The pair has been spending the last couple of hours in a tight range below 1.29 and is now trading at 1.2880, up 0.18% on the day.

The pair's upsurge on Wednesday was fueled by a stronger cable and a weaker greenback. The latest polls suggested that British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives are making up lost ground against the opposition Labour party, easing the concerns surrounding a potential political instability in the U.K. 

  • UK election: Conservatives stretch lead over Labour
  • SurveyMonkey Poll: UK Conservatives 44% vs. Labour Party 38%

On the other hand, the greenback struggles to find interest from investors as the dismal data macro from the U.S. jeopardize the odds of 2 more rate hikes in 2017. Federal Reserve's Beige Book didn't present anything surprising to the markets as it revealed that most Fed districts reported their economies continued to expand at a modest or moderate pace from early April through late May. Now investors turn their attention to Friday's NFP report.

  • Fed Beige Book: Majority of districts said firms expressed positive near-term outlook

Additionally, profit taking on the last day of the month may have contributed to the pair's correction as well. On a monthly basis, the pair is still down nearly 50 pips. 

Technical outlook

With a monthly close above 1.2820 (Fibo 23.6% retracement of March - May rise) the pair could extend its gains but it may have a difficult time doing so as investors are likely to refrain from taking heavy positions ahead of the U.K. election. 1.2920 (daily high/20-DMA) could be seen as the first technical resistance ahead of 1.3000 (psychological level/May 24 high) and 1.3050 (May 18 high). To the downside, a break below 1.2820 could open allow for further slippage towards 1.2690 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1.2595 (100-DMA).

May 31, 2017

Indian rupee in the middle of the EM pack - BBH

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the Indian rupee continues to perform in the middle of the EM pack.   Key Quotes: "In 2016, INR f
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May 31, 2017

SNB's Jordan: Strong Swiss franc continues to put pressure on Switzerland's monetary policy

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan crossed the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, stating that a strong Swiss franc continues to put p
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