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31 May 2017

USD/JPY: risks mounted to the downside and 110.22, the 200 day ma

USD/JPY has been advancing in a drift to the downside for the last day of the month while US 10-yields slip below the 2.20% level to a low of 2.1958%. The DXY is down -0.26% struggling around the 97.00 level. 

"Domestic industrial production figures disappointed relative to expectations, however we note that the 5.7% y/y print is the strongest since early 2014." explained analysts at Scotiabank. For now, markets are awaiting  the release of the Fed’s Beige Book while otherwise, markets appear tentative following Tuesday’s PCE disappointment with implications for the Fed tone into June.

"Dollar's broad weakness maintains the risk towards the downside, while intraday technical readings also favor a new leg south, particularly on a break below 110.50, the 61.8% retracement of the latest weekly bullish run," explained Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. 

USD/JPY levels

USD/JPY saw is easing lower within its cloud, as noted by analysts at Commerzbank who explained that the near term risk is for losses to the 110.22 200 day ma, which we suspect will hold. "This guards the 108.13 April low. It is neutral to negative very near term."

4 hours chart 

"The price keeps developing below its moving averages, with the 100 SMA far above the current level but gaining bearish potential, whilst technical indicators hover directionless within negative territory, reflecting the absence of directional strength."

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