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15 Mar 2013

Forex Flash: What lies ahead of GBP/USD? – UBS, Commerzbank and BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling has rapidly left behind the key resistances of 1.500 on Thursday and 1.5100 on Friday, after BoE’s M.King now twisted his former comments about his preference for a weak pound.

Despite the recent advance in the cross, UBS’s Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry keep the bearish outlook on the cross, arguing, “Yesterday’s sharp advance does not change the broader bearish picture. Important resistance is at 1.5199. Support is at 1.4912 ahead of 1.4832”.

In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggests “The market has eroded its accelerated downtrend and the Elliott wave count is suggesting a rally to 1.5225 possibly 1.5350 ahead of failure”. The expert also believes that this is a temporary correction, seen the cross to slip back towards 1.4259 in the longer term.

“There is potential for the pound to at least stabilise over the coming months versus the dollar before weakening again later in the year as the US fundamentals improve after a temporary softening and speculation of BOE remit changes intensifies once again”, assesses Derek Halpenny, Analyst at BTMU.
Mar 15, 2013

Forex Flash: Will markets soon follow fundamentals again? – UBS

Since the beginning of the year, especially after the minutes of the December FOMC minutes were released, the market has been looking into the prospect of finally following data, in the hope that the Fed would adjust its policy path in kind. After all, the numerical targets were launched with this very objective. As a result, the dollar moved to wards a neutral relationship with changes in break evens, i.e. not responding adversely to any rises at the very least.
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Mar 15, 2013

Forex Flash: Critics claim EU monetary policy caters to core – UBS

It’s important to take a look at how the EUR behaves in response to changes in inflation expectations, especially across different countries. This is often a source of contention as there is often a perception in southern Europe that monetary policy is set according to the needs of the core, while fiscal direction is now being set according to the needs of the periphery. This has been an especially painful process for the periphery at many points in the cycle and endlessly debated within political and policy circles.
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