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19 Dec 2016

USD: More legs to the yield-fuelled rally - Westpac

Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the US yields may be up sharply since Trump’s win (+80bp) but historical analogues (taper tantrum & QE2) suggest yields could rise at least +100bp over 6-12mths.

Key Quotes

“The Fed can lead market pricing higher still too - 3 hikes may be their base case for 2017 but that does not fully factor in a potential fiscal stimulus. In short there’s more legs to the yield-fuelled USD rally. Another HIA-style repatriation of foreign earnings, a more hawkish Fed as Trump fills 2 governor vacancies in 2017 as well as the Chair and Vice-Chair in 2018, and a rolling run of 2017 European political risks (Dutch, German and French elections), should all sustain USD strength well into 2017.”

“The caution is that details on a fiscal package are unlikely to be forthcoming for a few weeks, probably Trump’s 20 Jan 2017 inauguration and our US data surprise index is very extended. Cooler Nov retail sales was arguably an early signal of a trend shift on this front.”

Dec 19, 2016

China CASS: Chinese GDP to grow around 6.7% in 2016, reaching target

Bloomberg reporting a statement published by the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on the Chinese growth forecasts. Key Details: Economy to gr
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Dec 19, 2016

Australia: MYEFO offered little new news on the fiscal front - TDS

Australia’s Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) offered little new news on the fiscal front, expecting net debt to peak at -19% of GDP by mid-2
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