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19 Dec 2016

Australia: MYEFO offered little new news on the fiscal front - TDS

Australia’s Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) offered little new news on the fiscal front, expecting net debt to peak at -19% of GDP by mid-2019 as noted by the analysts at TDS.

Key Quotes

“The risk of a S&P Global ratings downgrade to AA+ remains above 50% but a decision on is unlikely to be made until after the 2017-18 Budget is released in May 2017. Our $A100b ACGB issuance program has upside due to (1) obstructionist Senate potentially not passing ‘baked in’ spending cut reform; and (2) new NBN loans are to be added from next year’s bond program. AOFM needs to issue up to $A2b/week in tenders and two modest-sized syndicates to reach this year’s target. NBN loans commence from 2017-18, requiring even more syndicates to fund.”

Dec 19, 2016

USD: More legs to the yield-fuelled rally - Westpac

Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the US yields may be up sharply since Trump’s win (+80bp) but historical analogues (ta

PBOC’s Sheng: China will likely raise 2017 budget fiscal deficit to 3-4% of GDP

Bloomberg (via China Business News) now reports comments delivered from PBOC senior adviser and former head of statistics department Sheng Songcheng a