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8 Sep 2016

High conviction trades: get long - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their model, macro and technical signal scores for the week ahead that have a strong leaning in favour of “long risk” trades.

Key Quotes:

"AUD and NZD as the most attractive G10 currencies according to our scoring system while the likes of CHF, USD and EUR are the most attractive shorts.

Among that group our scoring system flags NZD/CHF as the most attractive candidate for a long. NZD has benefitted from the sharp 30% rise in dairy prices during the past six weeks (the all-product index is now 75% above the Aug-15 low), which adds to the currency's already strong global appeal (thanks to its high real yield advantage). Dairy's rebound will also temper the RBNZ's enthusiasm for cutting the OCR, such that a Nov cut may well be the last in this cycle. On the cautionary side, the momentum may be with risk appetite but entry levels are far from compelling (VIX and CVIX are both at multi month lows).

Our global data surprise index is rolling over, not the most auspicious backdrop for risk appetite and both the ECB and BoJ might underwhelm at their respective upcoming September meetings. In any case our scoring system favours buying NZD/CHF on pullbacks rather than at market. We buy NZD/CHF at 0.7050, stop 0.6975.

Orders to buy USD/CAD on weakness and sell GBP/USD on strength were both filled last week but with our scores in both currencies shifting into the neutral zone  this week we exit long USD/CAD and short GBP/USD for a flat and +0.3% return respectively."

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