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5 Sep 2016

NZD/USD: needs data catalyst for a break of 0.7200/0.7350 range

NZD/USD remains in a tight consolidation phase while markets are reluctant to go with one way or the other given the confusing communication of late from the Fed vs the forever changing outlook for the US economy.

Markets remain Fed dependent and last week's US jobs report offered anything but green light for the fed to hike rates this month, but still laves the door open for a hike later in the yer and that supports the US dollar vs other currencies linked to a neutral or dovish Central Bank. New news is needed for a breakout from the multi-week 0.7200-0.7350 range. "A boost in dairy prices this week could do it. Otherwise it will up to the US dollar to lead the way, although the US data calendar is second-tier and thin this week," explained analysts at Westpac, adding, "Of interest for markets will be the first of the two GDT dairy auctions for September (Tue), futures prices currently signalling a 9% rise (which would follows gains of 10% and 20% in August)."

NZD/USD levels

Analysts at Westpac offered an outlook for three months and one year: "We target 0.70, based on an assumption the Fed will hike in Dec and the RBNZ will cut in November and possibly again after that. However the persistent backdrop of global demand for high-yielding currencies is strong - if the Fed doesn’t hike, then 0.75+ is likely instead. One year: Our economic fundamentals based forecast is 0.65."

Spot is presently trading at 0.7307, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7307 (Daily Classic PP), 0.7310 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7311 (YTD High), 0.7311 (Monthly High) and 0.7311 (Annual High). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7293 (Weekly High), 0.7286 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7279 (Daily Open), 0.7279 (Daily Low) and 0.7278 (Hourly 200 SMA). Regarding candlestick formations, we can see Doji formation on the 1-hour and a Hammer formation on the 4-hour chart.

 

 

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