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30 Aug 2016

What drives GBP after the Brexit vote - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that as the initial Brexit vote volatility fades, the rate spread has been an important driver again recently, while GBP’s reaction to UK political risks and risk sentiment has declined.

Key Quotes

“UK data will be a key driver in the near future, and further GBP weakness is likely as UK data show clearer signs of weakness. However, this suggests the BoE will face the lower bound quickly, and this could diminish the impact of UK factors on GBP, as we have seen for EUR reactions. After the range-trading at 1.30-35, we still expect GBP/USD to breach 1.30 again. Nonetheless, we think mid-term downside room for GBP/USD is more dependent on US data and monetary policy, unless the BoE’s monetary policy strategy changes.”

Aug 30, 2016

US: How much further US 10yr yields could rise? - Westpac

Research Team at Westpac, suggests that the Fed Vice-Chairman Fischer’s suggestion that two hikes are possible this year has produced a bearish impuls

AU-US 10yr spread hits at 15 year lows but will remain narrow – Westpac

Research Team at Westpac, suggests that one very interesting aspect of current valuations and global relativities is that the AU-US 10yr bond spread h