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1 Jun 2016

'Brexit' uncertainty drags GBP/USD further below 1.4500 handle

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair extended its Tuesday's sharp slide and dropped further below 1.4500 handle after the latest poll result showed voters leaning towards 'Brexit'. 

Uncertainty surrounding the up-coming EU referendum continues to drive sentiment around the British Pound. During early Asian session on Tuesday, the pair spiked to 1.4724 after the latest ORB poll revealed a lead for respondents supporting to stay in EU. 

The pair, however, reversed sharply during European session after two Guardian/ICM polls (online and telephone polls) suggested public opinion shifting in favor of leaving the EU. 

UK citizens will cast their vote on June 23 and the result is expected early on June 24.

From technical perspective, the pair seems to have formed a bearish double-top chart pattern around 1.4700-20 region and has also decisively broken below a short-term ascending trend-line support near 1.4500-1.4480 region. Hence, the pair now seems vulnerable to extend its slide in the near-term.

Technical levels to watch

From current levels, the pair seems more likely to extend its weakening trend towards testing 50-day SMA support near 1.4400 handle, below which the pair could fall further towards testing 100-day SMA support near 1.4340 region. A decisive break below 100-day SMA would confirm the bearish double-top pattern, opening room for extension of the pair's sharp downfall in the near-term.

Meanwhile on the upside, the ascending trend-line support break-point, near 1.4500 handle, now seems to act as immediate resistance. Any attempts of recovery beyond 1.4500 handle now seems to be capped near 1.4540-50 horizontal resistance area.

 

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Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US calendar is full while the focus is on the April manufacturing ISM, construction spending, and auto sales. 
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