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6 Mar 2013

Forex: EUR/JPY capped by 122.00 area

The EUR/JPY has been picking on the 122.00 mark, spiking to as high as 122.08, but resistance there is keeping the cross from the upside. Right after the European opening, the market retraced those gains back to the opening price of 121.75 and it is now quiet after EMU GDP.

GDP Q4 contracted by -0.6% as expected and the annualized figure dropped further, from -0.6% to 0.9%, also as predicted. The economic calendar is now empty for the rest of the European morning.

"While would allow for a slight rebound from here, the recent sell off was damaging and we would allow for an extension of losses to 117.29 then 114.07, this is the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the move up from November", wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to intraday resistance at 122.16, 123.22 (minor Fibonacci retracements).
Mar 6, 2013

Forex: USD/JPY eases off highs to 93.38/39

After peaking briefly at 93.51 (intraday maximum), the USD/JPY has eased slightly off its highs during European trading, pulling back over 10 pips to the 93.38/39 level in these moments. Despite this movement however, the pair is still entrenched in positive territory, up +0.11% Wednesday.
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Mar 6, 2013

Forex Flash: Market didn't priced in 30-40% chance of ECB rate cut – TD Securities

For the ECB meeting tomorrow, TD Securities analysts see a 30-40% chance of a refi rate cut, "which is not priced into the market" and the Central Bank is expected to lower the 2013 and 2014 GDP forecast, as well as the 2014 inflation forecast. "But one month of disappointing surveys for some members is not enough to yet dissuade optimists from the story of improvement, Italian election uncertainty is not a factor to rate cuts, and the depreciation in euro since the last meeting will leave that a less pressing concern", they wrote.
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