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10 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: all eyes on Yellen – Comerzbank and ANZ
The single currency is giving away part of the earlier test of fresh highs near 1.1350 – levels last seen in October – and is currently gyrating around 1.1300 the figure ahead of Yellen’s testimony later.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “has eroded the 1.1260/96 23.6% retracement of the move down from the 2014 peak and the 61.8% of the move down from August 2015 peak. The close above 1.1296 forces us to neutralise our view short term and consider further gains to 1.1460/95 (October high)”.
Furthermore, Brian Martin, Head of Global Economics at ANZ, suggested “The prospects for a quick repricing in the US yield curve to anticipate any profile resembling the FOMC’s dot points looks unlikely in the short term. For FX markets, that could allow the EUR/USD to retain its recent gains and unless the landscape improves quickly, EUR/USD could trade in a 1.10-1.15 range in coming weeks with an upward bias, despite the ECB’s indicated policy easing”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “has eroded the 1.1260/96 23.6% retracement of the move down from the 2014 peak and the 61.8% of the move down from August 2015 peak. The close above 1.1296 forces us to neutralise our view short term and consider further gains to 1.1460/95 (October high)”.
Furthermore, Brian Martin, Head of Global Economics at ANZ, suggested “The prospects for a quick repricing in the US yield curve to anticipate any profile resembling the FOMC’s dot points looks unlikely in the short term. For FX markets, that could allow the EUR/USD to retain its recent gains and unless the landscape improves quickly, EUR/USD could trade in a 1.10-1.15 range in coming weeks with an upward bias, despite the ECB’s indicated policy easing”.