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1 Feb 2016

USD/CNH rises strongly ahead of PBOC fix, market anticipating Yuan devaluation?

FXStreet (Bali) - USD/CNH has surged over 100 pips breaking back above the 6.60 handle ahead of the PBOC fix, which may feel more pressured to start considering a Yuan devaluation once again, following last Friday's BOJ decision to adopt negative rates.

Market anticipating higher USD/CNY?

As a consequence of the heightened risk of another potential Yuan devaluation, market participants may be reflecting such scenario via a higher USD/CNH this morning in Asia. However, the move up today should be put into perspective, as it follows a strong decline from 6.63 to 6.59 last Friday, as PBOC tightens measures to make offshore Yuan borrowing more expensive and discourage excessive speculative bets.

Yuan devaluation inevitable?

In an article recently posted at FXStreet, Ashraf Laidi, Founder at Intermarket Strategy, said: ""As Japan continues to devalue its currency via negative interest rates, China may well be able to continue weakening its currency, especially as JPY makes up for 15% of the CNY's index under the China Foreign Exchange System."
Feb 1, 2016

BOJ negative rates makes further Yuan devaluation inevitable - Ashraf Laidi

According to Ashraf Laidi, Founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd, last Friday's Yen devaluation by the BOJ following the decision to adopt interest rates, means more unfriendly Yuan devaluation is ahead.
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Feb 1, 2016

USD/CNY fix model - Projection: 289 pips higher to 6.5805 - Nomura

Nomura's model projects the fix to be higher by 289 pips from the previous fix (6.5805 from6.5516) and higher by 16 pips from the previous spot USD/CNY official close (6.5789).
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