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11 Dec 2015

Russia: CBR undecided on its decision - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that it is a coin toss whether the CBR keeps its Key Rate on hold at 11.00% or whether it cuts by -50 bps.

Key Quotes

“This uncertainty is reflected in the Bloomberg survey, with the majority expecting rates to be kept on hold, but a decent 15/36 expecting a cut. Arguing for a cut is the weak economy and the fact that inflation will fall sharply in the coming months due to base effects. However, there are a number of risks that have appeared recently.”

“Food price inflation will pick up as a result of the sanctions against Turkey. The ruble has been weak, tracking oil downwards. And the Fed is likely to hike rates just a few days after the CBR meeting. So it is possible that the CBR will want to wait to see how things develop and, assuming no major negatives, they can cut in January. As the CBR is keen to get rates lower to help stimulate the economy, it is also possible that they decide to risk it and cut by 50bp.”
Dec 11, 2015

US: Repercussions of Fed lift-off - NAB

Tony Kelly, Senior Economist at NAB, suggests that a Fed hike would be no surprise to financial markets and this should mean the impact of rate hike itself is limited, given the forward looking nature of financial markets.
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Dec 11, 2015

Growth in online sales highlights the opportunities in China’s new economy - NAB

Gerard Burg, Research Analyst at NAB, notes that the China’s online retail sales have rapidly expanded in recent years, as rising disposable incomes and growing internet penetration have supported the sector’s growth.
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