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US retail sales: Last data hurdle in the path of Fed lift-off – Rabobank

FXStreet (Delhi) - Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that one of the final few data hurdles we have to face before that Fed rate decision will fall today in the form of retail sales for November.

Key Quotes

“The expectation is 0.4% m-o-m headline and 0.3% ex-autos, but the risks must be of a significant surprise to the downside given the slew of survey data suggesting that credit card spending was weak during the period. Given that headline spending was only up 1.7% y-o-y in October, if we do see a drop in m-o-m spending, potentially the y-o-y pace of sales could go all the way back to as low as 1.1%, which is where it stood in the first half of 2008, for example. Of course, within that mix there may still be some serious ’bling’ being shifted for those whose share portfolios have soared so far in Q4.”

“We also see US PPI, where inflation will again be nowhere in sight (consensus: 0.0% m-o-m, -1.4% y-o-y in terms of final demand), and business inventories (consensus: 0.1% m-o-m), ahead of December Michigan consumer confidence, expected to edge up to a nice, warm egg-noggy 92.0.”

“We will also get inflation expectations from the same survey: last month saw a 1 tick bounce in 5-10 year CPI expectations to 2.6%, which was only the second lowest since the series began in 1986 rather the joint lowest at 2.5%.”

Eurozone: Irish 3Q growth puts 7% for 2015 in reach - ING

Anthony Baert, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that the Ireland might grow faster than China this year as the fresh GDP data for the third quarter confirms Ireland’s position as the strongest grower in the Eurozone.
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Antipodeans drop in Asia on weaker oil, a host of US data eyed

Broad based US dollar strength remained the underlying theme in a data-quiet Asian session, with the USD/JPY pair extending gains beyond 122 handle. While the Antipodean currencies halted their upbeat momentum and fell into the red zone, mainly due to the ongoing weakness in oil prices.
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