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28 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: US annual growth in 2013 expected at +1.8% – Goldman Sachs

According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We expect below-trend US annual growth of 1.8% in 2013 and an acceleration to 2.9% in 2014. Growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualized sequential basis, we expect a rebound to 2.6% in 201 3Q1 and a slowdown to 1.5% and 2% in 2013Q2 and Q3, before a pick-up to 2.5% in the last quarter of the year.”

Looking into 2014 and beyond, we expect above-trend growth at around 3%-3.5%. “Our forecast for near-term weakness but long-term strength is based on competing impulses from the private and public sectors. In Q2 and Q3, we expect the frontloaded ‘sequester’ to be a significant drag on growth, while in the intermediate and long term we see further strength in the private sector, led by the ongoing housing recovery, rising business investment and financial rebalancing in the household sector.” the team suggests.
Feb 28, 2013

US: EIA Natural Gas Storage drops -171B in Feb-22

In the week ending at February 22, natural gas storage dropped -171B, more than the -165B expected. In the week before, data had fallen by -127B.
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Feb 28, 2013

Session Recap: Risk appetite recedes

Despite some intraday movements, most crosses in the FX market continue to consolidate within their weekly ranges with the dollar mixed across the board. A string of minor European and US data has been largely ignored, although risk aversion started to pick up at the beginning of the NY session. The EUR/USD faced resistance at the 1.3160 area and settled somewhat lower, while the pound and the yen trade virtually unchanged against the USD. The Loonie is among the worst performers, weighed by domestic data, while the AUD holds onto gains, but off daily highs. US equities opened cautiously after Wednesday's surge, while gold trades below $1600 an ounce.
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