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30 Nov 2015
CAD: Bank of Canada policy decision in perspective - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that the risk of a Bank of Canada rate cut is also low, but the two rate cuts earlier this year may need to be followed up in Q1 next year.
Key Quotes
“Recall that according to the monthly GDP figures, the Canadian economy contracted from last November through May. The 0.4% expansion in June was the quickest pace that was achieved, and since then growth has been decelerating (0.3% in July and 0.1% in August. The economy is expected to have stagnated in September, which will be reported on December 4, two days after the Bank of Canada meeting.”
“The loss of economic momentum as the quarter proceeded may be more important than the Q3 figures reported at the same time (Bloomberg consensus forecast is 2.3% annualized). Canada's jobs data before the weekend are expected to be soft after an outsized rise in October (44k), but the fate of the Canadian dollar is likely to be driven by the next three events.”
Key Quotes
“Recall that according to the monthly GDP figures, the Canadian economy contracted from last November through May. The 0.4% expansion in June was the quickest pace that was achieved, and since then growth has been decelerating (0.3% in July and 0.1% in August. The economy is expected to have stagnated in September, which will be reported on December 4, two days after the Bank of Canada meeting.”
“The loss of economic momentum as the quarter proceeded may be more important than the Q3 figures reported at the same time (Bloomberg consensus forecast is 2.3% annualized). Canada's jobs data before the weekend are expected to be soft after an outsized rise in October (44k), but the fate of the Canadian dollar is likely to be driven by the next three events.”