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30 Sep 2013

GBP/USD retraces from 1.6200

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The sterling is now easing some ground against the greenback after pushing the GBP/USD to fresh 8-month highs around 1.6200 the figure.

GBP/USD eyes on PMI, US shutdown

The weakness surrounding the greenback is propelling the pair to the vicinity of the 1.6200 handle, levels last seen in January, and the trend looks set to continue as the shutdown of the US economy seems the most likely scenario in the very near term. In the UK economy, the most relevant releases will be tomorrow’s final manufacturing PMI result, with forecasts expecting the headline to improve a tad to 57.3 for September and Thursday’s services PMI, all preceding the US Payrolls on Friday. According to Paul Robson, FX Strategist at RBS, “Outflows of debt income have been rising fairly steadily. This will only get worse as 1) the BoE isn't buying anymore and 2) the fiscal deficit has stopped improving. This leaves us believing that the air above is thinning rapidly for GBP, most notably GBP/USD”. It is worth noting that RBS expects the pair to slide back to 1.55 by year-end, 1.52 in Q1’14 and 1.50 in Q2’14.

GBP/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.28% at 1.6184 with the next resistance at 1.6255 (high Jan.3). On the downside, a drop beyond 1.6025 (MA10d) would expose 1.5955 (low Sep.24) and then 1.5893 (low Sep.18).
Sep 30, 2013

Flash: USD, all eyes on Jobs numbers - Societe Generale

For the USD, this is an important week with the data which the Fed is most keen on. Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale comments.
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Sep 30, 2013

Flash: USD/JPY risk ahead with BoJ coming up - BAML

Research teams at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that they expect status quo at the BoJ monetary policy meeting next week and do not expect the BoJ to make any changes in its monetary policy framework.
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