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29 May 2015

RBA expected to cut rates in the medium term – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac, the RBA could cut rates by 50 bp.

Key Quotes

“Current market pricing for RBA policy gives around a 60% probability of one rate cut by the December quarter”.

“Under our preferred scenario (rising unemployment rate in 2015; 3% GDP growth in 2016; AUD back to USD0.73 by end 2015) policy is likely to remain on hold”.

“However, we support the view implied in the RBA’s bias that the risks to rates remain to the downside”.

“In particular, any slippage in household expenditure growth which would dampen prospects for a recovery in non-mining investment would affect growth forecasts for 2016 and substantially increase the risk of lower rates”.

“However, we expect that the timing would be later than current market thinking (first move in November at the earliest) and the extent of the cuts would be a total of 50bps rather than the market’s current 25bp expectation”.
May 29, 2015

GBP/USD in red below 1.5300

The pound accelerates losses versus the American dollar amid a data-dry GBP calendar, now pushing GBP/USD further below 1.53 handle. The major keeps losses despite a broadly muted US dollar as most traders wind up their positions towards the month end ahead of the key US GDP data release.
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May 29, 2015

NZD/USD sinks to fresh 4-yr lows ahead of 0.71

The New Zealand gave back previous gains and fell sharply versus against the American dollar in the mid-European session, knocking-off NZD/USD to fresh four year lows on the 0.71 handle. The Kiwi plunged in today’s trade in running following discouraging NZ business confidence and inflation expectations figures which fuelled further RBNZ easing bets.
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