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21 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: FX market badly positioned structurally - Societe Generale

A slightly more hawkish Fed minutes, where some members considered to soon start tapping bond purchases, came as a surprise by market participants, leading to a vigorous rise in all things USD.

Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale, notes: "In such a phase, the market is typically badly positioned structurally and unwilling to hear the news. The reaction has been most severe on the liquidity fuelled equities and the short USD position. We have been talking for a while about the degree of instability in FX and it is increasingly showing."

This instability, as Sebastien notes, "is hitting equities but not yet the core EM/USD in full force, with the odds being that the EM/USD position will have an unhappy day." Societe Generale continues to support its short calls on GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, JPY and long USD. On the Pound outlook, Mr. Galy suspects that after the new multi-year lows, "1.50 is the next likely target."
Feb 21, 2013

Forex: NZD/USD loses over 1 cent as central bank views diverge

One of the most gripping contrasts in performances in the past 24 hours has been the Kiwi vs the Greenback, with the rate getting smashed almost 1.5 cents from high to lows (0.8470 to 0.8330), currently around 0.8350.
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Feb 21, 2013

Forex: AUD/USD pauses the bleeding above 1.0240

AUD/USD has tumbled Wednesday more than -1.23% from peak to bottom, last at 1.0260, down -0.43% for the week so far. The pair chases gold and equities, that suffered massive sell offs following latest FOMC meeting minutes, in which was indicated stimulus policies may come to an end. Aussie went straight from a double weekly high at 1.0368 printed by late Asian session yesterday, to fresh weekly lows by late NY at 1.0237, without any significant retracement.
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