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1 Apr 2015

Treasuries: risks skewed to the downside – RBS

FXStreet (Barcelona) - With treasuries closing the bearish gap and seeing a barrier at 129-00, Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, believes that the next move would be lower towards 127-19 onto 126-18 and 126-00.

Key Quotes

“Risks remain skewed to the downside after the break above the trendline on the yield chart and the formation of a bearish outside session on the futures price chart, which, contrary to Bunds charts, indicated downside risks for the market.”

“The breakaway gap at 128-26 was closed, but the 129-00 resistance proved to cap further rallies, as was expected. My bias was that there may be another push higher towards 129-00, but ultimately decline to 127-19+ onto 126-18+ and 126-00.”

“The push higher has already occurred. With level unbroken, it is now time to expect price decline.”

“A sustained break above 129-09 would require the view re-assessed, while a break above 129-29 cancels the view+.”

“Strategy: keep short from 128-29+ for 127-31 onto 127-00, stop 129-29”
Apr 1, 2015

Will the USD actually rise after Fed hikes rates? – HSBC

Stacy Williams, Director of Quantitative FX Strategy at HSBC, believes that markets are buying USD based on expectations of a rally if and when the Fed hikes rates, and not on the basis on change in fundamentals, and further comments that this “last hurrah idea is just one of the thorns in the side of the USD.”.
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Apr 1, 2015

UK consumers driving the recovery of the economy – TDS

The TD Securities team sees domestic demand in the UK as the driving factor behind the recovery in the UK economy.
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