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5 Feb 2015

RBA and a probable rate cut in May – TDS

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -Strategists at TD Securities assessed the probable outcome of the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy due tomorrow.

Key Quotes

“After the “surprise” 25bp cash rate cut delivered earlier this week, we all want to know exactly why due process was abandoned, and we expect this document to answer a lot of unanswered questions”.

“The RBA communiqué on Tuesday (page 2) appeared to ‘reluctantly’ justify a cut, supported by 'sub-trend growth for somewhat longer' and a higher u-rate”.

“We expect the SoMP to pave the way for on hold at 2.25% and a “proper” easing bias in March. We pencil in May for the next –25bp to 2% to allow digestion of the first rate cut, monitor offshore events and peer at any post-cut reaction”.

“Also, it allows for an announcement by APRA to tighten up lending criteria, i.e. macroprudential tools, to allow for further easing without re -fuelling the house price cycle”.
Feb 5, 2015

WTI Crude steadies

The Crude prices in the US steadied post 9% losses seen in the previous session as supply concerns resurfaced after the data showed inventories in the US rose to record highs.
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Feb 5, 2015

EUR/JPY trades above 10-DMA

EUR/JPY remained elevated during the European session, swinging between gains and losses in the Asian session as euro struggles hard to breach 1.14 levels, while the yen remains choppy ahead of US economic releases.
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