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16 May 2025

USD/JPY: Short bias on the daily charts – OCBC

USD/JPY continued to trade lower amid decline in UST yields. Pair was last at 145.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Fed-BoJ policy divergence and de-dollarisation supports USD/JPY's downside

"Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell further. Support next at 144.15/40 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo). Resistance at 146.15 (50 DMA), 147.10 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). We kept our short USDJPY (entered at 148 (as per FX Weekly on Mon), targeting a move towards 141. SL at 151."

"We reiterate that while timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed. Fed-BoJ policy divergence and USD de-dollarisation theme should still support USD/JPY's broader direction of movement to the downside."

May 16, 2025

RUB: Unrealistic optimism – Commerzbank

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not market-driven or floating exchange rates. Even so, at this time, these exchange rates are reflecting excessive optimism that the US administration will push for a peace treaty with Ukraine and this will involve some of the harsh sanctions on Russia being removed.
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May 16, 2025

USD/JPY: Upward momentum has dissipated – UOB Group

Scope for USD to grind lower and test 144.95 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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