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16 May 2025

DXY: Slight downside risk – OCBC

USD turned lower, tracking UST yields lower. DXY was last at 100.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bullish momentum on daily chart

"US data underwhelmed. Retail sales came in softer, PPI saw its sharpest decline in 5 years while industrial production and empire manufacturing data printed weaker than expected. Decline in USD was more pronounced vs. CHF and JPY."

"Data focus shifts to import/export price index, housing starts, building permits and Uni of Michigan sentiment data. Another round of softer than expected print may further weigh on USD."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart shows gradual signs of it fading while RSI eased. Slight downside risk. Support at 99.90 (21 DMA), 99 levels. Resistance at 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough), 101.60 (50 DMA) and 102.60 (38.2% fibo)."

May 16, 2025

NZD/USD: Under mild downward pressure – UOB Group

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD); it could drift lower and test 0.5855. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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May 16, 2025

RUB: Unrealistic optimism – Commerzbank

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not market-driven or floating exchange rates. Even so, at this time, these exchange rates are reflecting excessive optimism that the US administration will push for a peace treaty with Ukraine and this will involve some of the harsh sanctions on Russia being removed.
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