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12 May 2025

CAD is down ‘only’ 0.3% vs. USD and a relative outperformer – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weak, down 0.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but a relative outperformer against all of the G10 currencies with the CAD’s peer currencies showing much greater declines in response to the US/China trade détente, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Markets focus on spreads

"Fundamentals are shifting against the CAD, with a continued widening in US-Canada yield spreads as markets pare back their expectations for Fed easing. Our FV estimate for USDCAD has climbed to 1.3922 and the estimate is likely to show further gains as trading in Canadian bonds gets underway."

"For the CAD, near-term movement is likely to continue to be driven by broader developments and the market’s tone. The recovery in spread correlations is notable and reflects a clear return to fundamentally-driven movement in the CAD. Domestically, this week’s release calendar is limited to building permits, housing starts, and manufacturing sales data toward the end of the week."

"USD/CAD has climbed to fresh local highs with a clear break of the prior range high around 1.3900. The September-February rally continues to frame the important technical levels to watch, and the break of the 61.8% retracement (1.3944) now shifts our focus to the midpoint of the range just above 1.4100. The RSI has broken above 50, into bullish territory, and is confirming the moves in spot. For support, we look to the 1.3900-1.3850 area."

May 12, 2025

USD surges on US/China détente as markets reprice Fed cuts – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is up broadly with meaningful gains against all of the G10 currencies as markets respond to the de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.
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May 12, 2025

EUR tumbles 1.5% on the day – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 1.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and seeing its largest one day decline since early November, around the time of the US election, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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