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9 Apr 2025

RBNZ cuts rates, signals more easing ahead – ING

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely expected rate cut and opened the door to further easing as trade tensions weigh on the outlook. With AUD and NZD under pressure, any sign of de-escalation between China and the US could offer much-needed relief.

AUD and NZD struggle amid trade war pressures

"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 25bp to 3.5% this morning, matching expectations. Guidance remained dovish, with policymakers signalling more room to cut rates as trade war effects unfold. We now think the RBNZ will take rates below 3.0%, probably to a 2.75% terminal rate, which is still above market pricing for 2.5%."

"The FX implications are very much secondary compared to the direction of trade news. AUD and NZD remain key laggards in G10 due to their proxy role for China. The People's Bank of China's (PBoC's) greater appetite for a lower yuan could take some pressure off the proxies, but it is not enough to trigger any strong rebound."

"AUD/USD has broken below the key 0.60 mark and NZD may follow by breaching the 0.55 support in the coming sessions. Given how far Antipodeans have fallen, they will be the biggest beneficiaries from any sign of de-escalation between China and the US."

Apr 9, 2025

EUR/GBP climbs toward 0.8600 amid growing hopes of easing trade tensions

EUR/GBP continues its upward momentum for a fifth consecutive session, trading near 0.8600 during Wednesday’s European hours.
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Apr 9, 2025

Eurozone growth to take a bigger hit from Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated – Reuters

Citing sources with direct knowledge of the European Central Bank (ECB) thinking, Reuters reported on Wednesday that the “Eurozone growth is expected to take a bigger hit from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated.”
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