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25 Mar 2025

AUD: February inflation coming in tonight – ING

Australia releases CPI data for February tonight, with consensus looking at a third consecutive 2.5% YoY headline print. The trimmed mean re-accelerated in January from 2.7% to 2.8%, causing new troubles for the RBA, which started easing last month, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

AUD to face downside risks to 0.62 in April

"We suspect the full-time-led drop in employment in February (-52k) needs to be matched with some new disinflationary signs to convince markets to fully price back a cut by May (April looks off the cards). Our call for the terminal rate is 3.35%, so 75bp of easing, although the pace and timing of further cuts are highly data-dependent and admittedly quite uncertain."

"That said, the RBA is a secondary driver for AUD compared to tariff news and global risk sentiment. AUD/USD is not particularly cheap based on short-term drivers (rates and equities), and we still expect some downside risks to 0.62 in April as tariff risks intensify."

Mar 25, 2025

Secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers – ING

Oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump announced 25% US tariffs on any country buying Venezuelan oil, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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Mar 25, 2025

Copper: Sentiment over tariffs improves – ING

Hopes Donald Trump’s next round of tariffs, due to be announced on 2 April , could be more measured supported industrial metals prices at the start of the new week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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