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BoC Harus Memilih di Antara Dua Pilihan yang Sulit – TDS

Bank of Canada terjebak dalam dilema, mencoba menyeimbangkan dampak ketidakpastian perdagangan - dan ancaman peningkatan tarif - dengan data ekonomi yang cukup baik, lapor Kepala Strategi Suku Bunga Kanada dan Global TDS Andrew Kelvin. 

Ekspektasi Suku Bunga Terminal Berada di Bawah Level-Level dari 29 Januari

"Bahkan dengan penangguhan menit-menit terakhir dari tindakan perdagangan AS yang luas, pasar suku bunga Kanada membawa premi risiko tarif yang terus berlanjut - ekspektasi suku bunga terminal berada di bawah level-level dari 29 Januari, meskipun data di Kanada dan AS kuat."

"Dalam skenario non-tarif yang paling mungkin, 2thn berada di antara wajar dan mahal di sini. Kami melihat asimetri yang lebih baik dalam steepeners daripada dalam posisi beli langsung. Demikian pula, dengan spread Kanada-AS di level-level ekstrem di seluruh kurva, kami melihat asimetri yang menarik dalam legging ke posisi jual Kanada/beli AS."

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