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13 Feb 2025

GBP: GDP numbers not as strong as they look – ING

Here are the thoughts of our UK economist, James Smith, on today's seemingly better-than-expected GDP figures, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

EUR/GBP to find support this month in the 0.8300/8350 area

"UK GDP was a bit better than feared in the fourth quarter but the outperformance was solely because of a massive increase in inventories. Remember these are volatile and don’t tell us much/anything about the underlying economic fundamentals. Consumption was flat."

"Business investment fell sharply despite some really good numbers earlier in the year. Net trade was poor. So it’s a lacklustre story which puts pressure on the Treasury to find savings. The OBR, which polices the fiscal rules, has forecast 0.4% in Q4 and therefore it will be revising down its highly optimistic 2% 2025 growth forecast."

"EUR/GBP dropped 20 pips on today's data, but as James says a re-assessment of the data could see sterling hand back its gains. We're negative on sterling into the second quarter and suspect that EUR/GBP will find support this month in the 0.8300/8350 area."

Feb 13, 2025

IEA Russian oil flows so far continue largely unaffected by latest US sanctions

In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.05 million bpd..
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Feb 13, 2025

Kremlin on possible Ukraine peace deal: There is a political will on both sides

Amid heightening speculations of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the Kremlin came out with a statement on Thursday, noting that “there is a political will on both sides to engage in dialogue and search for a settlement.
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