The oil market sold off yesterday despite US President Trump’s directive to increase economic pressure on Iran, which would include targeting oil exports from the country. Instead, the market focused on the tariff story, a theme likely to dictate sentiment for much of this year. In addition, the EIA’s weekly inventory report was fairly bearish with a large increase in crude oil stocks over the last week, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

Cold weather boosts distillate demand

“EIA data showed that commercial US crude oil inventories increased by 8.66m barrels over the last week, the largest build since February 2024. The increase was driven by strong imports, which grew by 467k b/d WoW with stronger flows from Canada, which increased 347k b/d. In addition, oil output recovered last week, following the impact of winter storms.”

“Crude oil output in the Lower 48 is estimated to have grown by 232k b/d. Refiners also increased their utilisation rates by 2.4pp over the week, which saw gasoline inventories rising by 2.23m barrels. However, distillate stocks fell by 5.47m barrels over the week. Cold weather boosted distillate demand, with implied demand hitting its highest level since early 2022.”

“So far today, oil prices are holding up better as Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling prices for all grades and to all regions for March loadings. This ties in with the strength that we have seen in the Middle East physical market since the start of the year. Aramco’s flagship Arab Light into Asia was increased by US$2.40/bbl to US$3.90/bbl over the benchmark – the highest level since December 2023. It is also the largest monthly increase since August 2022.”