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30 Jan 2025

EUR: Dovish ECB could weigh on EUR/USD – ING

It is a busy day for the European calendar dominated by GDP releases and the ECB meeting. France has just released a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP reading of -0.1% QoQ. Consumption and business investment were the weak links, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Downside risks to EUR/USD are evident

"Remember, the threat of trade tariffs is normally a negative for business investment – something the IMF has modelled. Let's see how the German and Italian numbers fare at 10CET and then the provisional eurozone release at 11CET. Here the consensus for eurozone fourth-quarter growth currently stands at 0.1% QoQ, with seemingly downside risks."

"Today's main event, however, is the ECB meeting – rate announcement 1415CET. A 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 2.75% is nailed on and instead the focus will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. We see some downside risks if the market believes there is a chance of the ECB taking policy below neutral."

"EUR/USD should be driven by events in Europe today, with a slight bias to the 1.0345/55 area should Lagarde sound quite dovish."

Jan 30, 2025

European gas prices surge – ING

European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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Jan 30, 2025

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in 4Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in 4Q
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