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28 Jan 2025

Riksbank to weigh on the SEK vs. the EUR in the near-term – Rabobank

The Bloomberg survey indicates that all but two forecasters are expecting a 25-bps rate cut from the Riksbank at the January 29 policy meeting, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.  

EUR/SEK to trade at 11.40 in 3 months

“The Riksbank has slashed rates by 150 bps since last May and indicated at its December meeting that ‘if the (economic) outlook remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025’. Despite this guidance, there is some speculation in the market that the Riksbank could announce two more rate cuts this year, with the second in March.”

“Consequently, while a policy change this week is unlikely to take the market by surprise, the bigger reaction is likely to come from the guidance provided by policy makers.  Although dovish guidance from the Riksbank would likely weigh on the SEK vs. the EUR in the near-term, the proximity of the end of Sweden’s rate cutting cycle and optimism that the economy is pulling away from recessionary conditions should provide support in the coming months.”

“We would be looking to buy the SEK on dips vs. the EUR and we maintain a 3-month forecast of EUR/SEK 11.40.” 

 

Jan 28, 2025

USD rebounds on renewed tariff threats – Scotiabank

After yesterday’s stock market swings, it’s back to tariffs for FX today. The US Dollar (USD) has strengthened broadly overnight as President Trump renewed his threat of hefty tariffs and specifically mentioned auto tariffs for Canada and Mexico. The FT reported that Treasury Sec.
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Jan 28, 2025

CAD outperforms among G10 currencies – Scotiabank

It’s swings and roundabouts for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) at present as markets weigh the risk of tariffs and react to each and every headline that drops on the matter, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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