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4 Nov 2024
USD/CAD falls to near 1.3900 amid higher crude Oil prices, US election in focus
- USD/CAD depreciates as the commodity-linked CAD gains ground due to the higher Oil prices.
- OPEC+ has extended its production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day through the end of December 2024.
- The recent polls indicate a tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump across seven states.
USD/CAD offers gains from the previous two days, trading around 1.3900 during the Asian hours on Monday. The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from the higher Oil prices, which could be attributed to the delay in a planned output increase by the OPEC+ coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, such as Russia.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price appreciated around 2% on Monday, trading around $70.50 per barrel during Asian hours. On Sunday, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to extend its production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through the end of December 2024. citing weak demand and rising supply outside the group. Additionally, the member countries reaffirmed their commitment to "achieve full conformity" with production targets and to compensate for any overproduction by September 2025.
Traders are closely watching the upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday, as the final New York Times/Siena College poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris with slight leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while former President Donald Trump holds a narrow edge in Arizona. The candidates are in close contests in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Conducted from October 24 to November 2, the poll indicated that all matchups in seven battleground states fall within a 3.5% margin of error.
In addition to the election, traders are also focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, with expectations of a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 99.6% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction by the Fed in November.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.