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23 Feb 2024

AUD/USD aims higher amid upbeat mood, mixed US data

  • AUD/USD modestly up at 0.6559, after peaking at 0.6595, with technical levels influencing movement.
  • Solid US job data and economic expansion hints keep Fed rate hike expectations alive, impacting the Aussie.
  • Fed officials' comments reflect cautious optimism on inflation, hinting at a data-driven approach to future rate cuts.

The Aussie Dollar registers minuscule gains against the US Dollar as Friday’s Asia session begins. The pair remains capped on the upside despite hitting a new month high at 0.6595, as a key technical resistance level that acted like a magnet drove the exchange rate toward the 0.6550s area. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6559, up 0.06%.

Aussie touches monthly high but faces key resistance at 200-DMA

Wall Street ended Thursday’s session at all-time highs, portraying an upbeat market mood. US employment data was solid as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that unemployment claims for the week ending on February 17, dropped to 201K from 213K, and below the consensus. At the same time, S&P Global's mixed February Flash PMI data, indicating economic expansion, supports the case for the US Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates for a longer duration to address inflationary pressures.

The data sponsored a jump in the short end of the US Treasury bond yield curve, and capped the US Dollar’s (USD) losses, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 103.94, down 0.05%. In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires, led by Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Governor Lisa Cook.

Fed Jefferson said he’s optimistic about the progress on inflation, and despite adding that rate cuts could happen later, he remains data-dependent. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Patrich Harket said the central bank is on track for a rate cut this year, and despite putting a May rate cut on the table, it’s not his base case scenario. Last but not least, Lisa Cook said she needs more confidence in inflation before cutting rates.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD daily chart is neutral to downward biased, with the exchange rate bracing at around the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6561. A decisive break to the upside would pave the way to challenge Thursday’s high at 0.6595 ahead of 0.6600. On the other hand, a drop below the 0.6500 mark would sponsor a leg-down toward the current year-to-date (YTD) low of 0.6442.

 

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