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12 Feb 2024

The case for some appreciation in the AUD this year remains strong – Scotiabank

AUD/USD ended the week just above 0.6500. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

AUD outlook remains constructive

The Reserve Bank of Australia is reluctant to concede that the tightening cycle is over, suggesting that the policy rate will stay elevated for some time to come. Stimulus efforts in China may – eventually – lead to some sustained economic improvement in a key export market for Australia.

The AUD looks relatively ‘cheap’ among its major currency peers in broad terms and trades below our own short-term, fair value estimate currently.

Market sentiment remains bearish but aggressive short AUD positioning has eased somewhat from the peaks seen late last year.

AUD/USD – Q1-24 0.6600 Q2-24 0.6600 Q3-24 0.6800 Q4-24 0.6800

Feb 12, 2024

UK economic data releases could unsettle the GBP this week – Rabobank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has had a good start to the year and is currently the second best performing G10 currency after the US Dollar (USD) in 2024 to date.

US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, inflation to fall below 3% for first time in nearly three years

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the most important inflation measure, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, on Tuesday, February 13 at 13:30 GMT.