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12 Feb 2024

USD/JPY falls to near 149.00 despite dismal market mood ahead of US Inflation data

  • USD/JPY falls gradually to 149.00 as investors see the BoJ pivoting away from easy policy sooner.
  • The market mood is cautious ahead of the US inflation data for January.
  • Investors forecast that US inflation will grow at a steady pace.

The USD/JPY drops to near 149.00 in the European session on Monday. The asset has come under pressure amid hopes that a sizeable wage increase by Japanese firms would help the Bank of Japan (BoJ) exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The BoJ wants sustainable inflation above 2% to pivot away from a decade-long expansionary policy, which can be achieved through steady wage growth.

Last week, the appeal for the Japanese Yen faltered after BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi said that monetary policy conditions in the Japanese economy are in a deep negative trajectory, which should not be blown up aggressively.

Meanwhile, improving optimism over Japan’s recovery by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved the outlook of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. The IMF advised the BoJ to end its yield curve control (YCC) and massive asset purchase program and then focus on gradually raising interest rates.

S&P500 futures remain subdued in the London session, indicating a cautious market mood ahead of January's United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds sharply from 103.90 as the appeal for safe-haven assets improves.

Investors anticipate that the headline and core CPI grew steadily at 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The outlook for the US Dollar will improve if the inflation data turns out more stubborn than anticipated.

 

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