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9 Feb 2024

Four reasons why USD's current carry advantage is set to transition into a headwind – BofA

Economists at the Bank of America analyze the potential shift from the US Dollar's (USD) carry advantage to a significant headwind.

Challenging period ahead for the USD

The Fed is predicted to be one of the initial G10 central banks to reduce rates, challenging the USD's carry advantage.

Given the higher starting point of US rates, their potential reduction could significantly narrow the rate differentials with other currencies, diminishing the USD's attractiveness.

The USD stands as one of the most overvalued currencies in the G10, a factor that could amplify its vulnerability in a rate-cutting environment.

Lower interest rates in the US typically boost global risk appetite, a dynamic that historically benefits currencies other than the USD.

Feb 9, 2024

EUR/USD to end the second quarter somewhere near 1.1000 – ING

It has been a relatively quiet start to the year in FX markets.

The S&P 500 has posted a positive return in 13 of the last 15 Presidential Election years – Citi

The road to the White House currently looks like a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.