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12 Jan 2024

WTI whips in frothy energy markets, briefly climbs to $73.80 after Iran captures oil tanker

  • Middle East conflict concerns continue to drive up fossil fuels.
  • US inflation concerns briefly knocked back barrel costs before a late-day rebound.
  • WTI continues a painful grind in a tug-of-war between supply constraint fears and actual supply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil jumped on Thursday after Iran announced the capture of a civilian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman early in the day. Official Iranian state media has declared the seizure a retaliation for the US’ seizure of the exact same ship a year ago when it was bound for Iran.

With Middle East tensions, mostly surrounding Iran, continue to plague global supply line concerns, Crude Oil is set to continue seeing a bumpy ride through 2024.

US Crude Oil and oil derivative stocks continue to outrun market forecasts, with massive buildups in gasoline and oil products continuing to burgeon. Despite logistics concerns, Crude Oil supplies continue to thumb a nose at market participants, especially as the US continues to ramp up its domestic Crude Oil production as a net exporter.

Global demand for oil is also on the decline, focused on declining growth from China, and the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its loose collection of allied non-member states, OPEC+, continues to grapple with severe production cuts having a limited effect. OPEC members are increasingly unwilling to go along with continuing production cap decreases being strong-armed through OPEC’s leadership, lead by Saudi Arabia. Smaller OPEC members overwhelmingly rely on producing and exporting Crude Oil to balance their government budgets.

WTI Technical Outlook

US Crude Oil is broadly up on Thursday in rough trading, starting the day’s trading below $71.50 per barrel and testing into the $73.00 handle after crossing the key level multiple time throughout the day.

WTI peaked near $74.00 per barrel in early Thursday run-up before descending back into the $72.00.

WTI rebounded once more, testing back into the $73.00 handle as US Crude Oil resumes trading inside of a rough range that has plagued WTI since the start of 2024.

Daily candlesticks continue to trade on the south side of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the $78.00 handle, with near-term action further constrained by the 50-day SMA descending into $74.00.

WTI Hourly Chart

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Technical Levels

 

Jan 11, 2024

Fed's Goolsbee: 2023 a “hall-of-fame” year for reducing inflation

President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee threaded the needle on Thursday, joining other Fed Presidents in making public observations about inflation following the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print earlier in the day.
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Jan 12, 2024

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls consolidate gains after hitting highs since early December

In Thursday's session, the EUR/JPY declined slightly. A bullish outlook dominates the daily charts, showing signs of bulls gaining ground.
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