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1 Nov 2023

NZD/USD aims higher as US economic data falters, eyes on Fed’s next move

  • Softer-than-expected US economic data weakens USD, propelling NZD/USD to trade at 0.5838.
  • Mixed US labor market signals and recessionary manufacturing activity create an upbeat sentiment for NZD.
  • NZD/USD's future hinges on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting outcome.

NZD/USD makes a U-turn and registers decent gains of 0.22% after softer-than-estimated economic data from the United States (US) weakened the American Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.5838 after bouncing from daily lows of 0.5788.

NZD/USD registers gains amidst mixed US labor market signals and recessionary manufacturing activity

An upbeat sentiment favors risk-perceived currencies like the Kiwi Dollar (NZD) ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. A tranche of US data witnessed the US labor market displaying mixed signals, as the ADP Employment Change in October, showed the creation of more jobs than the previous month but missed estimates. On the other hand, the US Department of Labor reported the JOLTs report, which revealed that job openings in September continued to rise, above estimates and August’s figures.

In the meantime, manufacturing activity in the US continues to remain in recessionary territory. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in October, remained below the 50 contraction/expansion threshold for twelve straight months, blamed on New Orders falling while Manufacturing Prices rose.

In other data, the US Treasury Department announced its quarterly refunding, with auctions increasing less than expected, sparking a rally in US bonds.

During the Asian session, employment data from New Zealand was a headwind for the NZD/USD, with the economy slashing jobs; consequently, the Unemployment Rate rose. That would refrain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from hiking rates.

That alongside with China’s economic recovery being a bumpy one, could undermine the Kiwi. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in October, deteriorated further, in alignment with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data announced a day before.

All that said, the NZD/USD remains positive but at the mercy of the Fed’s monetary policy decision. A hawkish tilt could undermine the NZD/USD pair, pushing prices below the 0.5800 mark.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

 

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