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17 Oct 2023

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Recover some lost ground, the key barrier is seen at 1.3700

  • USD/CAD attracts some buyers around 1.3630 amid the recovery in US bond yields.
  • The pair holds above the 50- and 100-day EMAs; RSI indicator is located in the bullish territory above 50.
  • The key resistance level is seen at 1.3700; 1.3566 acts as an initial support.

The USD/CAD pair snaps a two-day losing streak during the Asian session on Tuesday. A rebound of the pair is bolstered by a rally of the US Treasury yields and a decline in oil prices. Traders will closely monitor the US Retail Sales and the Canadian inflation data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading near 1.3630, holding higher while adding 0.15% on the day.

The US Retail Sales figure is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM whereas the annual and monthly Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise by 4.0% and 0.1%, respectively.

From the technical perspective, USD/CAD holds above the 50- and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart, which supports the buyers for the time being. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located in the bullish territory above 50, which means the path of the least resistance of USD/CAD is to the upside.

That said, the key resistance level for the pair is seen near the confluence of the psychological round figure and a high of October 12 of 1.3700. Any decisive follow-through buying above the latter will see a rally to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 1.3770. The additional upside filter to watch is near a high of October 5 at 1.3785. Further north, the pair will see a rally to a high of March 10 at 1.3860.

On the flip side, a low of October 10 at 1.3566 acts as an initial support for USD/CAD. The next contention level is located near the 50-day EMA at 1.3545, followed by the 100-day EMA at 1.3493. A break below the latter will see a drop to the next downside stop at 1.3410, representing the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. Further south, a low of September 19 at 1.3379 will be the next level to watch.

USD/CAD daily chart

 

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